With Apologies to Peter King: Things We Think We Know

This week's games will bring an end to the first quarter of the season, meaning we should have a pretty clear idea of who's on the right track come Monday. Then again, there are a lot of pretty strong indications already. So let's get an early start on grouping the league into playoff contenders, bubble teams and also-rans, all listed in alphabetical order.

CONTENDERS
You'll note there are 14 teams on this list. Only 12 make the playoffs, so at least two of these teams will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. That's the kind of mad math skills Couch Potato brings to his searing analysis:
Baltimore—An up and coming QB in Flacco, a punishing young running back in Rice, and the always ferocious defense. All the pieces are there.
Buffalo—This is the year Ryan Fitzpatrick's Ivy League background finally pays off.
Detroit—So long as Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson stay healthy, an end to the playoff drought seems highly likely.
Dallas—The Cowboys will go as far as Tony Romo's puny little brain can take them.
Green Bay—Favre to Rodgers transition rivals Montana to Young; Rodgers will be the best player in the NFL for the next 10 years.
Houston—Thanks to a vastly improved defense, this is the year the Texans get over the hump and play in January.
New England—The Pats will only lose when a team can outscore them, and that won't happen often.
New Orleans—So long as Drew Brees and his army of receivers is suiting up, the Saints will be a playoff mainstay.
NY Giants—The Giants well-rounded roster will keep them in the hunt.
NY Jets—If the Jets miss the playoffs, Rex Ryan's head just might explode.
Oakland—It pains me to publicly acknowledge this, but the Raiders are clearly on the right track.
Pittsburgh—The Steelers D may not be as ferocious, but with Big Ben behind the controls, there will always be plenty of wins.
San Diego—Normally slow-starting Chargers are 2-1 with Phillip Rivers off to a sub-par start. Expect them to get better as the season progresses.
Tampa Bay—Bucs catch a break with their late-season schedule, which is pretty much bereft of cold weather games, save a Nov. 20 trip to Green Bay.

BUBBLE TEAMS
Couch Potato wouldn't be surprised to see any of these teams sneak in:
Atlanta—Until the Falcons shows they can win outside the Georgia Dome, it's hard to take them seriously.
Chicago—Two words: Jay Cutler
Cleveland—Colt McCoy era just getting started—Browns fans will need to be patient for another year.
Philadelphia—It doesn't matter how many stars the Eagles have assembled: If Vick doesn't stay healthy, they're toast.
San Francisco—If 49ers find a way to squeak in, it will probably be despite Alex Smith, not because of him.
Tennessee—Matt Hasselbeck's play so far is a nice little story, but Chris Johnson's horrible start is a huge concern.
Washington—Two more words: Rex Grossman

ALSO-RANS
Fans of these teams should feel safe booking January ski weekends:
Arizona—Last week's loss in Seattle spoke volumes about this team's weaknesses.
Carolina—Cam Newton makes Panthers a team to watch in 2012 and beyond.
Cincinnati—Like Newton, Andy Dalton gives the Bengals hope. Now they just need to surround him with some skill players.
Denver—Think John Fox wishes he could have stayed in Carolina to coach Newton?
Indianapolis—2011 theme: Is there life in Indy after Peyton?
Jacksonville—The Blaine Gabbert experiment has begun. Jags better hope MoJo survives.
Kansas City—To think, this team was awash in optimism before getting outscored 89-10 in the first two weeks.
Miami—When a team can't win at home, it's pretty much doomed.
Minnesota—The last thing Vikings fans expected McNabb to do was make them long for Tarvaris Jackson.
Seattle—Blech. Nothing more to say.
St. Louis—The Rams will get better, but their 0-3 whole will prove too big to crawl out from.

Now that we've rendered the regular season moot, let's get to this week's games:

Detroit (3-0) at Dallas (2-1)
If it weren’t for Tony Romo’s opening week fourth-quarter brain lock, this would be a battle of unbeatens. Dallas is on an NFL record 9-game streak of games decided by 3 points or less. Meanwhile, Detroit hasn’t lost since December 5, 2010, winning a decidedly un-Lion-like 7 in a row. Couch Potato will go out on a limb and guarantee that ONE of those streaks will end Sunday.

Carolina (1-2) at Chicago (1-2)
This game features a contrasting quarterback duel pitting Jay Cutler against Cam Newton. One of them is playing like a seasoned veteran who makes sound decisions. The other one is playing like Cutler.

Buffalo (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2)
The way Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and the Bills receivers are performing, it’s tempting to elevate Buffalo from early season novelty to valid playoff contender. Conversely, an ugly home loss to the 49ers tells us that the Andy Dalton-led Bengals have a ways to go.

Tennessee (2-1) at Cleveland (2-1)
Painful reminder to all you Chris Johnson fantasy owners: After lobbying to be the league’s top paid back, Johnson has led the Titans to the bottom of the NFL rushing ranks after 3 weeks. That, folks, is what we call a poor return on investment.

Minnesota (0-3) at Kansas City (0-3)
The Chiefs are enduring one of the NFL’s epic nightmare starts after entering the season with aspirations of building on last season’s surprise playoff appearance. The Vikings are learning just how limited an offense run by an aging Donovan McNabb is. Yep, we’re a long, long way from Super Bowl IV, when Len Dawson and the Chiefs beat up on Joe Capp and the Vikings, 23-7.

Washington (2-1) at St. Louis (0-3)
The one thing young Rams QB Sam Bradford did not need was to find himself playing without Steven Jackson, whose absence has allowed teams to key on Bradford. If Jackson plays this week, things get a lot more complicated for the Redskins’ defense.

New Orleans (2-1) at Jacksonville (1-2)
Last week, Couch Potato failed to note that Mizzou alum Blaine Gabbert would be starting his first game, going up against fellow rookie Cam Newton. This week, Gabbert’s education kicks up a notch as he faces off against the impeccable Drew Brees. I know one blogger/columnist who’ll be pulling for him.

Pittsburgh (2-1) at Houston (2-1)
Finally, we get to see what the Steelers’ opening week disaster in Baltimore might have meant, as the vaunted Steel Curtain faces one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, which may be welcoming back the injured Arian Foster. Dominating wins over the anemic Seahawks and Peyton-less Colts told us pretty much nothing about Troy Polamalu & Co.

San Francisco (2-1) at Philadelphia (1-2)
So much for all the talk of the Eagles having assembled a so-called “Dream Team.” After suffering through a Kafka-esque fourth quarter implosion at home against the Giants—the second straight week Philadelphia has had to finish a game without Michael Vick—the Eagles have to be wondering if trading Kevin Kolb and going all-in on an injury-prone dog killer was such a good idea.

NY Giants (2-1) at Arizona (1-2)
Speaking of Kolb, so far his tenure in Phoenix can hardly be called the second coming of Kurt Warner. Meanwhile, after their season opening clunker against Washington, Eli Manning and the G-Men have settled into their typically efficient—if not awe-inspiring—brand of winning football.

Atlanta (1-2) at Seattle (1-2)
Pity the team that’s anointed a trendy Super Bowl pick before the season, as was the case with the Falcons. A note to the prognosticators: Before jumping on a team’s bandwagon, you might want to verify that it can actually win on the road, which Atlanta simply does not do. (Matt Ryan & Co. should have enough to squeak out a win over the Seahawks, though.)

Miami (0-3) at San Diego (2-1)
With Chad Henne still under center for the Dolphins, no one will be anticipating anything like the overtime playoff classic the Dolphins and the Dan Fouts-led Chargers staged in January 1982. But the Dolphins should be thankful to get out of Miami, where they’ve inexplicably lost 9 of their last 10.

New England (2-1) at Oakland (2-1)
Couch Potato really wants to be there to cheer on the Pats as Tom Brady takes the field in the Bay Area for the first time in 9 years, but he also wants to remain un-hospitalized, so he’ll take advantage of the fact that the Raiders managed to sell out in time to lift the local TV blackout. A win for the Raiders establishes them as an AFC contender. God help us all.

Denver (1-2) at Green Bay (3-0)
There's nothing a defending Super Bowl champ likes better than to fly under the radar, and that's exactly what the Packers are doing. While the football world has been marveling at the revivals in Detroit and Buffalo, Green Bay's 3-0 start has gone almost completely unnoticed. But something tells the Couch Potato that the Broncos are keenly aware of it.

NY Jets (2-1) at Baltimore (2-1)
This match-up of two of the league's best defenses didn't disappoint last year, with the Ravens winning 10-9. This time, don't be surprised if offense rules the day, as both teams have put up solid numbers in their wins. Outlandish prediction: This game features more trick plays than any other on the Week 4 schedule.

MONDAY NIGHT
Indianapolis (0-3) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Yep, I bet this is just what the NFL schedulers had in mind: Curtis Painter, starting at QB for the Colts, on the road, in prime time. Methinks the Colts will be one step closer to winning the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.